Alec's Best XI

How Alec thinks moving some players around and changing the tactics could take NYCFC from a fringe playoff team, to full-fledged MLS Cup contenders.

4-3-3:

I believe that a 4-3-3 is currently NYCFC’s best formation, but playing it well would require some tactical nuance and bravery. Assuming no injuries, with the roster we have (as of 2/12) above is what I believe to be the best possible XI. 

So let’s talk about this lineup: 

The first very clear elephant in the room is Santi Rodriguez as a winger. I do not believe that Santi is a classic 10 in the way that Maxi has been. For me, the team has been lacking in creativity and a lot of that has to do with a lack of a “dynamic” passer in the mid-field. In the last year and change, I believe NYCFC became incredibly predictable as a result of losing a player that can spread the field and create the way Maxi did.

I believe Santi is better on the right wing operating as an inside forward. I think this leaves room for more creative players like Maxi/Keaton to play centrally, while still retaining Santi on the pitch for his ability to drive at goal and be generally dangerous in the opponent's box. Obviously, Maxi is coming off an injury and thus cannot be a day one starter, though I don’t think there would be a huge drop off in playing this formation with two 8s in Perea/Keaton, with Keaton being a bit more advanced because of his ability to receive the ball and turn. I generally believe that Keaton is a more creative passer than Santi on the ball. I’ve also chosen to play both Illenić and O’Toole even though there are some significant defensive liabilities associated with playing them at the same time. 

On paper, this XI is pretty vanilla. However, it’s the tactical nuance that I believe would make this XI a bit more dynamic in the attack and lead to more goals. 

Tactics: 

CFG, and by proxy NYCFC believe in winning the game by controlling possession of the ball. As someone recently explained to me, “Fundamental to the “CFG way”, is a belief that you can pass your way out of anything.” While I believe this is true, I also worry that the current patterns of play are not dynamic enough to break down opponents.

In our current formation, we have three points where danger can come from. It can come from the middle of the field through our 10, or it can come from the overlapping runs from the full-backs. However, the team has been blessed with MLS best play from Anton Tinnerholm and Maxi Moralez from 2019 - 2022. When one of those players was absent, even in the seasons where NYCFC was one of the most dominant teams in the league, the team still looked anemic and struggled to find opportunities. It took some individual brilliance from Taty Castellanos and Maxi Moralez to eventually lift that team into glory in 2021.

However, even I as a fan can recall games in that season where Maxi or Taty didn’t play and the team struggled significantly to get results. I say this to indicate that the team currently feels lackluster and doesn’t have the capability for dynamic passing that made us so dangerous from 2016 - 2022. If I were Nick Cushing, my first move would be to change the tactics of how the 4-3-3 plays to create more space for our mid-field to create chances. 

My first tactical wrinkle would be to pin Talles Magno both high up the pitch and wide on the left touchline, specifically in transition to stretch the back line. That would look like this: 

As of right now, NYCFC relies on creating space vertically with Birk Risa being the primary linear threat over the top to Bakrar. What that does is open gaps in the mid-field for our more technical players (Keaton/Santi) to receive the ball in mid-field by pushing the opposing backline towards their own goal.

However, outside of that wrinkle I do not believe the tactics generate enough space for the players to operate fully. Specifically, I think we are too narrow. Talles, one of the league’s most skilled players on the ball, rarely receives the ball in enough space to take defenders on 1v1. According to FBref, In 2022 he had 128 take on attempts at a 55.1% success rate. In 2023 that dropped to 98 take on attempts at a 40.8% success rate. I do not think that Talles got 15% worse at dribbling. What makes more sense to me is that a change in positioning altered the amount of space he tended to receive the ball in, specifically when he was playing as striker.

I believe Pinning him high and wide and instructing James to look for Talles on the wing with a long ball over the top would be a great way to get him receiving the ball in space. This is because the formation tilts to the right, which pushes the opposing team to tilt that way as well, allowing Talles a lot of space to work in on the wing. Should the outside back stick with Talles instead of shifting, this would open up space for Bakrar/Maxi/Santi to make runs in behind the gap between the opposing CB and RB. Seemingly the main issue with this wrinkle is Thiago Martins/James Sands’ ability to hit that ball cross field to Talles. It’s not a pass NYCFC makes often. This leads me to wonder if they can hit that pass or if they are instructed to be less risky with the ball by Nick Cushing and avoid hitting those longer passes.

The above wrinkle also shifts Kevin into the half-space which preserves the necessity for a more defensive positioning when paired with Illenic, and more numbers when counter-pressing the opponent. This also gives us another man in the midfield to overload that space and allows for a more seamless build-up into the final third, giving NYCFC counter protection. Specifically, with Kevin in the half-space our counter-press immediately has a man advantage, when we turn over the ball. This allows us to create opportunities without the ball just by being advantageous positionally depending on where the ball is lost. 

As this moves from transitionary moments into the final third, I would have Talles tuck back inside and revert to overlapping full backs, with James and Keaton/Perea being late arriving runners at the top of the box. If the ball is on the right side, it would look like: 

The left side here would be a bit more nuanced. I believe that if the ball makes it to Talles’ feet as the defending team is in a low block, this should trigger Kevin to make an overlapping run for Talles. It would look like this: 

These specific wrinkles are designed to ultimately maintain width and give our mid-field more time and space, while also putting players where I believe they will have the most success.

Conclusion:

Every manager says they want to play attacking football. It’s almost a comedic moment when the introductory presser starts because everyone knows what a new manager is going to say. Inevitably, some play more conservatively and some play more aggressively. The ethos of NYCFC is one that has historically meant danger, counter-press, and “pretty pineapples”. However, in this iteration of NYCFC, it feels like there is messaging to take less risks and be more balanced, resulting in a general pallidity to the way they play.

For me, in order to return to an exciting style of play, the tactics need to evolve. Speaking to a few NYCFC supporters recently, I asked them if they would rather win a game 1-0 and eke out the result, or 4-3 but impose our style of play on the opposing team. Unanimously, they all agreed that we would be disappointed with the former result and that specifically NYCFC demands attractive soccer and bravery. That is something I think has been lacking for a while now. Taking risks is by design risky, but it’s forgivable if there are moments of brilliance along with the mistakes. This is why I think this is the best way for NYCFC to play.