At the time of writing this, NYCFC is 1-2-4 in seven games. New England is 1-1-4 in six games, notching their first win of the season last week at home in a hard fought 1-0 result vs Charlotte. Despite the slim goal margin, a win is still a win as they are desperate for results following their Concacaf Champions Cup exit via Club America. This now regular season focused New England team will be licking their chops coming into this Saturday's matchup against the boys in blue, who are coming off a somewhat disappointing draw at home vs Atlanta United.
The Blue Wall
This season, both teams have lost four games and won only one game, so on the surface it seems like an even matchup. The underlying numbers however, show that this is more one sided than it might seem. So far in 2024, New England have conceded an average of 3.5 goals in away games and an average of only one goal conceded when at home, evening out to about 1.83 goals per 90 overall. New York has conceded 1.33 on average at home and 1.25 when away from home, averaging about 1.29 goals conceded per match overall. It’s clear to see that though their seasons might be thus far fairly similar, the underlying numbers indicate that only one of the teams have been defensively consistent.
Finishing
Ultimately, it will come down to which team seizes their chances in front of goal. So far this year the Revs have scored 80% of their goals between the 41st-70th minute mark (40% in the 41st-50th, 40% in the 61st-70th) with the other 20% having been scored in the 81st-90th minute. However, they’ve also conceded goals 36% of the time between the 51st-60th minute, which implies that they take their time finding their rhythm but eventually the game opens up and they become more dangerous but simultaneously more vulnerable.
Unlike New England, the Pigeons prefer to play on the front foot, insisting themselves upon the game, scoring 100% of their goals this season before the 70th minute. As mentioned, the Revs have tended to play more conservatively, and against the Pigeons, who prefer to press and possess, it's highly likely that NYCFC could secure an early lead with a goal or two.
Key Player
A player to keep an eye on would be Carles Gil. Not only did he provide the game winning goal for the Revs last week, but he proves to be indispensable to what the Revs do in more understated data. A way to better understand Carles as a player would be to compare him to the Pigeon’s own DP playmaker, Santi Rodriguez.
If there is a key to winning, it has something to do with mitigating Gil’s ability to affect the game when he’s on the ball. Apart from the data shown above (Gil above, Rodriguez below), Carles is seventh in the league in total carries, third in total carrying distance, third in progressive carrying distance, and fourth in progressive carries. Santi as a comparison is 30th in the league in total carries, seventh in total carrying distance, 16th in progressive carrying distance, and 18th in progressive carries. Neither have yet to assist a goal this season.
Prediction
For me, this could be the first win of the home stand, of which there are only four more games left to play (including today’s game). Extracting some value out of these games could prove crucial to turning the season around before the mid-season mark. Abandoning semi-professional journalism and stepping briefly into the role of a soothsayer, I feel like there might be an early goal, with some touchy moments around half time, and possibly a game winner from NYC around the 60th-70th minute. I can see this ending 2-1 or possibly 3-1 in City’s favor. If I’m right, come find me in City’s press box to tell me how smart and handsome I am. If I’m wrong, pretend I never even wrote this.